Thursday, July 16, 2009

Powerful forces converge in Iran this weekend after two remarkable acts of conscience:
1. The head of Iran's Nuclear Program resigns, not just from the Atomic agency, but also from the vice-presidency of Iran. He has ties to Khatami and Mousavi, and is believed to have strong reformist sympathies.
2. The head of Iran's national orchestra has resigned too and reportedly made it clear he was doing it to protest the crackdown on reformists, which continues, with more arrests every day.
3. Everyone now waits for Friday, when wild card Rafsanjani, the billionaire Ayatollah and pistachio king, delivers the Friday prayers. He is a wily old guy with a wet finger in the wind at all times, and has been sending mixed messages for the past few weeks. Just yesterday he said that he and Ayatollah Khamenei are like longtime lovers who occasionally have a spat(?!). But his family are strong reformists, his political party has condemned the elections, and he is the head of the Assembly of Experts, weakened a lot since the crackdown, but not out of the game. He is reported to be a big crook, which makes me think of the French elections in 2002, which resulted in a runoff between President Jacques Chirac, a center-of-right crook, and Jean-Marie Le Pen, an ultra-right, racist, xenophobe. Protest signs read, "Votez L'escroc, pas fasho," vote for the Crook not the Fascho. Good advice always. France held its nose and gave Chirac a huge victory, a landslide, but without a mandate.
Rafsanjani has more checks on his power now than when he was President. He has to be more responsive to the people, according to this Iranian, who has the most interesting take on Raffi.
4. And Mousavi has announced he will be attending the Friday prayers.
"Two strong factors are still working in his favour: a divided clerical establishment and the blogosphere, where Iranians are among the world’s liveliest performers." - The Economist
5. Karoubi says he'll be there too.
6. Ahmadinejad will not be in town as he has gone to Mashad to ride this out.
7. The regime thugs will make a good showing at the prayers. But they might want to be careful. The regime has lost a lot of support in places worldwide where Ahmadinejad was once admired for standing up to the West and to Israel, and revolt is brewing in three ethnic areas of the country.
8. Most importantly, Friday's gathering should feature a lot of mullahs holding Korans and heartbroken mothers holding photographs of their martyred children. Try as the regime might to confiscate every cellphone in Iran, block every port and punish in unspeakable ways those who record events, people will videotape and get it out to the world somehow.

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